Government Business, Government Finance
Article | July 12, 2022
The COVID-19 virus (C19) pandemic is turning out to be the event of the century. Even World War seems timid in comparison. We are in the 4th month of the virus (in non-China countries) and have gone past the lockdown in many places. Isn’t it time we re-think the approach? What if there is another wave of C19 coming soon? What if C19 is the first of many such events in the future?
Before we get into analysis and solution design, summarizing the C19 quirks:
While a large section of the affected population is asymptomatic, for some it can be lethal
There isn’t clarity on all the ways C19 spreads
It’s known to affect the lungs, heart, and kidneys in patients with weak immunity
It has been hard to identify a definitive pattern of the virus. Some observations in managing the C19 situation are:
With no vaccine in sight, the end of this epidemic looks months or years away
Health care personnel in hospitals need additional protection to treat patients
Lockdowns lead to severe economic hardship and its repeated application can be damaging
Quarantining people has an economic cost, especially in the weaker sections of society
If one takes a step back to re-think about this, we are primarily solving 2 problems:
Minimise deaths: Minimise the death of C19 and non-C19 patients in this period
Maximise economic growth: The GDP output/growth should equal or higher than pre-C19 levels
One needs to achieve the 2 goals in an environment of rising number of C19 cases.
Minimise deaths
An approach that can be applied to achieve this is:
Data driven health care capacity planning
Build a health repository of all the citizens with details like pre-existing diseases, comorbidity, health status, etc. The repository needs to be updated quarterly to account for patient data changes
This health repository data is combined with the C19 profile (disease susceptibility) and/or other seasonal diseases to determine the healthcare capacity (medicines, doctors, etc.) needed
The healthcare capacity deficit/excess needs to be analysed in categories (beds, equipment, medicine, personnel, etc.) and regions (city, state, etc.) and actions taken accordingly
Regular capacity management will ensure patients aren’t deprived of timely treatment. In addition, such planning helps in the equitable distribution of healthcare across regions and optimising health care costs. Healthcare sector is better prepared to scale-up/down their operations
Based on the analysis citizens can be informed about their probability of needing hospitalisation on contracting C19. Citizens with a higher health risk on C19 infection should be personally trained on prevention and tips to manage the disease on occurrence
The diagram below explains the process
Mechanism to increase hospital capacity without cost escalation
Due to the nature of C19, health personnel are prone to infection and their safety is a big issue. There is also a shortage of hospitable beds available. Even non-C19 patients aren’t getting the required treatment because health personnel seek it as a risk. This resulted in, healthcare costs going up and availability reducing.
To mitigate such issues, hospital layouts may need to be altered (as shown in the diagram below). The altered layout improves hospital capacity and availability of health care personnel. It also reduces the need for the arduous C19 protection procedures. Such procedures reduce the patient treatment capacity and puts a toll on hospital management.
Over a period, the number of recovered C19 persons are going to increase significantly. We need to start tapping into their services to reduce the burden on the system. The hospitals need to be divided into 3 zones. The hospital zoning illustration shown below explains how this could be done. In the diagram, patients are shown in green and health care personnel are in light red.
**Assumption: Infected and recovered C19 patients are immune to the disease. This is not clearly established
Better enforcement of social factors
The other reason for high number of infections in countries like India is a glaring disregard in following C19 rules in public places and the laxity in enforcement. Enforcement covers 2 parts, tracking incidents of violation and penalising the behaviour. Government should use modern mechanisms like crowd sourcing to track incidents and ride on the growing public fear to ensure penalty enforcement succeeds. The C19 pandemic has exposed governance limitations in not just following C19 rules, but also in other areas of public safety like road travel, sanitation, dietary habits, etc.
Maximise economic growth
The earlier lockdown has strained the economy. Adequate measures need to be taken to get the economy back on track. Some of the areas that need to be addressed are:
One needs to evaluate the development needs of the country in different categories like growth impetus factors (e.g. building roads, electricity capacity increase), social factors (e.g. waste water treatment plants, health care capacity), and environmental factors (e.g. solar energy generation, EV charging stations). Governments need to accelerate funding in such projects so that that large numbers of unemployed people are hired and trained. Besides giving an immediate boost to the ailing economy such projects have a future payback. The governments should not get bogged down by the huge fiscal deficit such measures can create. Such a mechanism to get money out in the economy is far than better measures like QE (Quantitative Easing) or free money transfer into people’s bank accounts
Certain items like smartphone, internet, masks, etc. have become critical (for work, education, critical government announcements). It’s essential to subsidise or reduce taxes so that these items are affordable and accessible to everyone without a financial impact
The government shouldn’t put too many C19 related controls on service offerings (e.g. shops, schools, restaurants, cabs). Putting many controls increases the cost of the service which neither the seller not buyer is willing or able to pay. Where controls are put, the Govt should bear the costs or reduce taxes or figure out a mechanism so that the cost can be absorbed.
An event like the C19 pandemic is a great opportunity to rationalise development imbalances in the country. Government funding should be channelized more to under-developed regions. This drives growth in regions that need it most. It also prevents excess migration that has resulted in uncontrolled and bad urbanisation that has made C19 management hard (guidelines like social distance are impossible to follow)
Post-C19 lockdown, the business environment (need for sanitizers, masks, home furniture) has changed. To make people employable in new flourishing businesses there could be a need to re-skill people. Such an initiative can be taken up by the public/private sector
The number of C19 infected asymptomatic patients is going to keep increasing. Building an economy around them (existing, recovered C19 patients) may not be a far-fetched idea. E.g. jobs for C19 infected daily wage earners, C19 infected taxi drivers to transport C19 patients, etc.
In the last 100 years, mankind has conquered the destructive aspects of many a disease and natural mishap (hurricanes, floods, etc.). Human lives lost in such events has dramatically dropped over the years and our preparedness has never been this good. Nature seems to have caught up with mankind’s big strides in science and technology. C19 has been hard to reign in with no breakthrough yet. The C19 pandemic is here to stay for the near future. The more we accept this reality and change ourselves to live with it amidst us, the faster we can return to a new normal. A quote from Edward Jenner (inventor of Small Pox) seems apt in the situation – “The deviation of man from the state in which he was originally placed by nature seems to have proved to him a prolific source of diseases”.
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Emerging Technology, Government Business
Article | October 7, 2022
COVID-19 hit the construction industry like a tsunami. Almost all medium to large construction projects were shuttered as government leaders scrambled to protect the health of Americans.
Today, however, even though the pandemic has not been contained, there is renewed interest in construction and reason for optimism. The immediate future is considerably brighter today than it was three months ago. Although construction projects are moving slower and fewer new ones being launched, there is definite movement.
One year ago, construction projects were so abundant industry leaders warned of imminent danger related to America’s shortage of skilled construction workers, designers, and engineers. Those alarms are not as loud today, but that could change soon because new projects are being announced on a daily basis throughout the country.
Officials at the Tampa International Airport placed approximately $906 million in construction projects on hold, but there’s little doubt that construction will begin again in the not too distant future. Air travel is down more than 95 percent, and urgency for planned expansions and upgrades is not as great.
Many colleges and universities also have delayed projects. In fact, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) put a two-year halt on construction planned for this month. A $155 million football facility near Memorial Stadium is delayed primarily because university officials anticipate a $50 million budget shortfall. There’s also uncertainty about when sports events can resume.
But, more positive news may definitely be found in almost every state in the U.S. Here are just a few examples of upcoming construction projects in America.
Louisiana
The Louisiana State Legislature has approved $529 million for construction on university campuses. The University of Louisiana at Lafayette plans to spend $187,700 to repair Fletcher Hall and $16.4 million to renovate Madison Hall. Northwestern State University will receive $37.4 million for construction related to Kyser Hall. Louisiana Tech University plans to spend $40.5 million for a number of campus improvements, and Louisiana State University (LSU) has $227.7 million for construction projects. Southern University in Baton Rouge has planned renovations and expansions for about $18.2 million.
North Carolina
Wake County has approved a $1.47 billion budget and Capital Improvement Plan (CIP). It outlines construction projects at Wake Technical Community College that include new buildings on many campuses. One project outlined in the CIP is a new Emergency Operations Center, and other projects include a new Public Health Center, construction of training space at the Board of Elections Center, facility upgrades at Human Services Sunnybrook, a Facility Condition Assessment program, and vacant space build out for housing at Oak City Multi-Services Center.
Missouri
On June 2, North Kansas City Schools received approval for a $155 million zero-tax increase bond issue. Lee’s Summit voters also approved a new $224 million bond issue for various infrastructure projects in the R-7 School District. Some of the construction projects include a fourth middle school facility and renovations to the three existing middle school facilities. Voters approved a no-levy-increase bond question for $25 million for improvements to district facilities at Belton School District 124.
Wisconsin
The city of Sun Prairie has approved its 2021-2023 Capital Improvement Plan that includes many construction projects. The funding includes $7.4 million for phosphorous treatment and plant capacity upgrades at the Water Pollution Control Facility and $2.1 million for Sun Prairie Utility’s Business Park Substation expansion. Unfunded projects for 2021 include $3 million for a library expansion, a public works campus, and a Grans-Hepker intersection expansion. In 2022 the city will spend $7.4 million on street reconstruction. Another unfunded project for years 2022 and 2023 is a $5.7 million bathhouse renovation.
New Jersey
The New Jersey Turnpike Authority and the South Jersey Transportation Authority approved a toll increase to fund approximately $25 billion in construction over 10 years. Projects include the widening of 15 different sections of a turnpike, the replacement of a bridge between New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and upgrades to roadway tolling stations. The plan also calls for widening of a 13-mile section of the Expressway, construction of a direct connector to the Atlantic City Airport and installation of cashless toll equipment.
The governor announced plans this week to develop an offshore wind port on an artificial island along the Delaware River, potentially giving the state a competitive edge in the race to attract offshore wind jobs and manufacturers. The project would be unlike anything yet proposed in the U.S. and its cost could be as high as $400 million. The New Jersey Economic Development Authority will lead development of the port with the hope of creating thousands of high paying jobs and establishing New Jersey as the national capital of ‘off shore wind’.
Texas
The Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) Transportation Policy Board adopted a 2021-2024 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) that has numerous major construction projects. It includes $633 million for the I-35 Capital Express project which will be sponsored by the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). The TIP also outlines transportation plans from regional transportation entities including TxDOT-Austin District, Capital Metro, Capital Area Rural Transportation System, and other local sponsors that have federally funded or regionally significant projects. One project the board chose to maintain is construction of two lane frontage roads on U.S. Highway 183. That project is projected to cost approximately $75 million.
Other projects in the CAMPO plan are:
Slaughter Lane widening to six lanes from Brodie Lane to N. Mopac Expressway – $15.73 million;
William Cannon widening to four lanes from McKinney Falls Parkway to Running Water Drive – $14.69 million;
Braker Lane extension from Samsung Boulevard to Dawes Place – $14.05 million;
University Boulevard reconstruction and widening to four lanes from County Road 110 to A.W. Grimes Road – $7.88 million;
Gattis School Road Segment 6 widening to six lanes – $11.38 million;
RM 967 widening from Oak Forest Drive to FM 1626 – $5.32 million;
FM 621 widening from CR 266 to De Zavala Drive in Hays County – $5.1 million;
SH 180 left turn lane installation and elimination of shoulder gap – $2.05 million; and,
Hopkins Multi-use Bike-Pedestrian Facility construction – $2 million.
Construction, engineering, architectural, and design firms will, no doubt, find immediate opportunities to contract with public officials. Additionally, as Congress begins to take up the task of developing an infrastructure bill, it is clear that construction projects will be hailed as the fastest way to stimulate the nation’s economy – a goal that has bipartisan support in America.
Mary Scott Nabers is president and CEO of Strategic Partnerships Inc., a business development company specializing in government contracting and procurement consulting throughout the U.S. Her recently released book, Inside the Infrastructure Revolution: A Roadmap for Building America, is a handbook for contractors, investors and the public at large seeking to explore how public-private partnerships or joint ventures can help finance their infrastructure projects.
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Government Business
Article | March 11, 2022
COVID-19 placed enormous demands on government services—demands that are not likely to go away. Moreover, the private sector now looks to government to facilitate the data transparency, digital processes, and data security needed to fuel recovery. Governments now understand those old ways of doing business no longer work. They need to become agile and flexible to meet today’s needs. Some were moved in that direction by the unexpected demands of the pandemic. For others, COVID-19 simply accelerated their digital transformation journey that was already underway.
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Article | April 15, 2020
We’re starting to get the first independent analysis of the impact of the measures the U.S. Congress has passed to provide relief will have on the U.S. government’s fiscal situation. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is first out of the gate with its preliminary findings, here is their main takeaway: Our latest projections find that under current law, budget deficits will total more than $3.8 trillion (18.7 percent of GDP) this year and $2.1 trillion (9.7 percent of GDP) in 2021. We project debt held by the public will exceed the size of the economy by the end of Fiscal Year 2020 and eclipse the prior record set after World War II by 2023. Keep in mind that prior to the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. government was planning to spend $4.8 trillion in its 2020 fiscal year, borrowing $1.1 trillion. With the CRFB’s estimate of $3.8 trillion, the U.S. government will be borrowing more than the $3.7 trillion it had hoped to collect in taxes for the year.
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