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U.S.-China trade war risks driving Fed policy, not Trump's carping: economists

September 13, 2019 / Shrutee Sarkar

The U.S.-China trade war will worsen or at best stay the same over the coming year, according to economists in a Reuters poll who expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week for the second meeting in a row. The median probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years held at a high of 45% and the chance of one in the next 12 months held at 30%. But the expected quarter-point rate cut is unlikely to satisfy U.S. President Donald Trump, who in tweets this week called on Fed policymakers to slash interest rates into negative territory to boost slowing economic growth.