Projections by EIA are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and
methodologies used for any particular scenario. The AEO2014 Reference case projection is a business-as-usual trend
estimate, given known technology and technological and demographic trends. EIA explores the impacts of alternative
assumptions in other scenarios with different macroeconomic growth rates, world oil prices, and rates of technology
progress. The main cases in AEO2014 generally assume that current laws and regulations are maintained throughout the
projections. Thus, the projections provide policy-neutral baselines that can be used to analyze policy initiatives.
While energy markets are complex, energy models are simplified representations of energy production and consum