How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?

Government debt and forecasts thereof attracted considerable attention during the recent financial crisis. The current paper analyzes potential biases in different U.S. government agencies’ one-year-ahead forecasts of U.S. gross federal debt over 1984—2012. Standard tests typically fail to detect biases in these forecasts. However, impulse indicator saturation (IIS) detects economically large and highly significant time-varying biases, particularly at turning points in the business cycle. These biases do not appear to be politically related. IIS defines a generic procedure for examining forecast properties; it explains why standard tests fail to detect bias; and it provides a mechanism for potentially improving forecasts.

Spotlight

Municipality of Alphen-Chaam

Alphen-Chaam is a municipality in the province of North Brabant in the Netherlands. The town has 9,645 inhabitants (November 1, 2012, source: CBS) and has an area of ​​93.63 km ².

OTHER WHITEPAPERS
news image

Security Clearances for Contractors and Government Employees

whitePaper | January 29, 2020

Individual government contractors face more rigorous scrutiny, as private companies can monitor employee’s social media as part of their continuous vetting and insider threat protocols. However, despite the existence of a directive permitting them to do so, government agencies do not monitor their employees’ social media. Our interviews found this is due to a lack of clear guidance on how to implement the existing directives and security policies. This shortcoming can be remedied by government agencies agreeing upon a single common standard regarding the use of publicly available electronic information, specifically social media, for personnel security and insider threat purposes. The DNI, as Security Executive Agent for the government, must then develop guidelines for the implementation of this standard throughout the sector.

Read More
news image

THE FUTURE OF AI REGULATION: THE GOVERNMENT AS REGULATOR AND RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PARTICIPANT

whitePaper | March 3, 2020

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems have raised concerns in the public—some speculative and some based in contemporary experience. Some of these concerns overlap with concerns about privacy of data, some relate to the effectiveness of AI systems and some relate to the possibility of the misapplication of the technology. At the same time, the development of AI technology is seen as a matter of national priority, and fears of losing the “AI technology race” fuel national efforts to support its development.

Read More
news image

Best Practices for SharePoint Governance

whitePaper | September 30, 2022

SharePoint offers a comprehensive portal and information management platform which has over the years expanded to become a complete information management platform. When SharePoint is deployed with a mature project management process, clear governance, and a commitment to on-going excellence, it becomes a productive tool to solve the problems faced by information workers. It offers a simple method to find, manage, and gather information across multiple sources. When combined with other Microsoft technology offerings, SharePoint becomes the modern workplace's best information management platform.

Read More
news image

Cybersecurity Modernization - Transform Government While Controlling Business Risk

whitePaper | December 17, 2019

Moving systems to the cloud, introducing mobile devices into the workforce, investing in smart city projects and undergoing other modernization efforts can introduce risk if agencies can't sufficiently protect their data. According to a recent survey, 92 percent of government respondents will use sensitive data in an advanced technology within the year, yet 96 percent consider themselves "vulnerable."

Read More
news image

A Leadership Guide to Multi-Cloud Success for Federal Agencies

whitePaper | August 11, 2022

Organizations in the public sector are moving from a single-cloud community to a multicloud one. Examples of this have already been seen in the intelligence community and Department of Defense space with the introduction of the Commercial Cloud Enterprise (C2E) and Joint Warfighter Cloud Capability (JWCC) contracts. These are just two examples of the massive shift that is occurring across the entire public sector as it modernizes to integrate multiple cloud providers. Leadership needs to plan for the impact this will have on the way programs are staffed and the way systems are engineered and tested. Successful multi-cloud adoption requires thoughtful, purposeful action. A broader availability of cloud service providers (CSPs) means that federal organizations must become smarter and more discerning cloud customers

Read More
news image

The Ultimate Guide to Government CX

whitePaper | December 26, 2019

Transforming the way governments serve the public is about more than choosing the right technologies. This level of change requires agencies to rethink how they engage their customers — from citizens and external partners to the frontline employees assisting the public.

Read More

Spotlight

Municipality of Alphen-Chaam

Alphen-Chaam is a municipality in the province of North Brabant in the Netherlands. The town has 9,645 inhabitants (November 1, 2012, source: CBS) and has an area of ​​93.63 km ².

Events