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US Dollar weakens in spite of worldwide stock rout
The relentless sell-off in equities worldwide and rising risk aversion did not benefit the US Dollar, which fell against every G10 currency, save the Canadian Dollar and, even more unusually, most emerging market currencies outside the Pacific Rim. The Yen predictably benefited from market nervousness as a safe-haven, but so did the Turkish Lira, the South African Rand and the Brazilian Real, all of them buoyed by market-friendly political developments. In the absence of key macroeconomic or monetary policy news this week, we expect markets to remain focused on the interaction between US interest rates, risk assets, and currencies. The unusual divergence between the US Dollar and higher US rates, if confirmed over the next few weeks, would be a critical development.
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